Oil price, Unit root, Moving Average (MA), ARIMA, Economic forecast., Box-Jenkins


Nigerian government has been adopting Moving Average (MA) method in pegging crude oil price benchmark. However, large discrepancy between the projected oil price benchmark and the actual international crude oil prices is observed over time. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to investigate whether Box-Jenkins approach could provide a lasting solution to the problem of inefficient oil price forecast in the Nigerian budgeting process. In our quest for an appropriate oil benchmark, monthly bonny light crude oil prices for the period of April 1986 to December 2015 are used.

Author Bio

The author Bashir Umar Faruk PhD, is from the Department of Economics at the Umaru Musa Yar' Adua University, Kastina.

Publication Title

CBN Bullion







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