"Geopolitical tensions, crude oil price and output dynamics: implicatio" by Harrison O. Okafor

Bullion

Title

Geopolitical tensions, crude oil price and output dynamics: implications for fiscal governance in Nigeria

Authors

Harrison O. Okafor, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow

Keywords

Geopolitical tensions, Crude oil price, Fiscal governance, VAR model

Abstract

This paper examined the linkages between geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices and oil output dynamics vis-a-vis the implication for fiscal governance in Nigeria. within a strategic game theoretical framework, anchored on moral hazard assumptions (incentive problem) and applying VAR model, findings indicate that geopolitical tensions affects Nigeria's bonny light crude oil price and export. Results also revealed that the timing and impact of geopolitical tensions last fairly long thus, could affect fiscal revenue and economic governance in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper recommends a complete diversification of the economy from oil will strengthen the nation's fiscal space and development planning.

Author Bio

The author is a staff of the Central Bank of Nigeria

Publication Title

CBN Bullion

Issue

Volume

Recommended Citation

Okafor, Harrison O. (2018) "Geopolitical tensions, crude oil price and output dynamics: implications for fiscal governance in Nigeria," Bullion: Vol. 42: No. 1, Article 4.
Available at: https://dc.cbn.gov.ng/bullion/vol42/iss1/4

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