Geopolitical tensions, Crude oil price, Fiscal governance, VAR model


This paper examined the linkages between geopolitical tensions, crude oil prices and oil output dynamics vis-a-vis the implication for fiscal governance in Nigeria. within a strategic game theoretical framework, anchored on moral hazard assumptions (incentive problem) and applying VAR model, findings indicate that geopolitical tensions affects Nigeria's bonny light crude oil price and export. Results also revealed that the timing and impact of geopolitical tensions last fairly long thus, could affect fiscal revenue and economic governance in Nigeria. Therefore, the paper recommends a complete diversification of the economy from oil will strengthen the nation's fiscal space and development planning.

Author Bio

The author is a staff of the Central Bank of Nigeria

Publication Title

CBN Bullion







To view the content in your browser, please download Adobe Reader or, alternately,
you may Download the file to your hard drive.

NOTE: The latest versions of Adobe Reader do not support viewing PDF files within Firefox on Mac OS and if you are using a modern (Intel) Mac, there is no official plugin for viewing PDF files within the browser window.