External debt, Debt stock, ARDL bound testing approach, Lag length selection, Long-run coefficients, Error correction term.
The study analyzed the impact of external debt on Nigeria's agricultural production from 1980 to 2016 using secondary data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). Augmented DickeyFuller unit root test and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration were utilized, to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical results revealed that the variables were cointegrated, indicating that they exhibited long run relationship, both in the short and the long run. External debt stock (EDS) had a significant positive impact on agricultural production (AGP), indicating that EDS positively impacted agricultural growth. i.e. higher EDS accelerated agricultural growth in the long run. To be precise, a 1 % increase in EDS led to 0.96 % increase in AGP. The remaining variables indicated negative and significant relationships with AGP. The ndings further showed that there was no positive impact of EDSP on agricultural production in Nigeria. Government should aggressively pursue the process of diversification of the economy through agricultural production. There is the need to diversify the source of external debt service especially to the non-oil sectors such as agriculture, mines, industry and manufacturing, to reduce the burden and the negative consequences of over dependence on foreign exchange from oil and the volatility in its price on Nigerians.
Yerima, Aishatu U. and Tahir, Hussaini M.
"The impact of external debt on agricultural production in Nigeria (1980-2016): Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling,"
Bullion: Vol. 44
, Article 6.
Available at: https://dc.cbn.gov.ng/bullion/vol44/iss2/6