Assessment of Nigeria's Sectoral Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Performance Using the Three-Stage Model

Authors

Umeokwobi Richard PhD, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow

Keywords

Structural Transformation, Sectoral Imbalance, Nigeria, Three-Stage Growth

Abstract

Nigeria's economic structure has undergone an atypical transformation, resulting in a lack of sustainable growth. It has been deduced that developed countries move from an agriculture-dominant economy to an industrial-dominant economy and finally to a service-dominant economy. This shift can be seen through the lens of the three-stage model. This paper investigates whether Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) follows the model. Motivated by this anomaly, the study examines the pattern and implications of Nigeria's sectoral transformation, utilising the Three-Stage Growth Model as a theoretical framework. The analysis employs trend and descriptive methods to examine sectoral contributions to GDP and structural shifts between 2010 and 2014. Findings reveal that the services sector has become the leading driver of GDP. The study attributes this pattern to infrastructure deficits, policy inconsistencies, limited access to finance, and an unfavourable business environment. Based on these findings, the study recommends, among other measures, implementing a coherent industrial policy framework and investing in infrastructure (especially energy and transport). These measures are essential for achieving structrual balance and sustainbale economic development in Nigeria.

Author Bio

Dr. Umeokwobi is a senior economist in Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics and is a member of the Nigerian Economic Society and Nigerian Statistical Association. His research areas include inflation dynamics, digital currency, macroeconomic stability, and output gap modelling. His econometric insights support evidence-based monetary policy formulation.

Issue

2

Volume

49

First Page

50

Last Page

57

Recommended Citation

Richard, Umeokwobi PhD (2025) "Assessment of Nigeria's Sectoral Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Performance Using the Three-Stage Model," Bullion: Vol. 49: No. 1, Article 6.
Available at: https://dc.cbn.gov.ng/bullion/vol49/iss1/6