Document Type

Occasional Paper

Publication Title

Seasonal Adjustment of Naira Exchange Rate Statistics 1970-1995


This paper uses a current statistical approach to examine and adjust the seasonalities in the Naira exchange rate statistics, vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar and the pound sterling for a period of twenty-five (25) years. Such study is necessary as it helps to understand the behavioural pattern of a trend in an attempt to predict the future. An investigation like this also helps to expose both the short and long run tendencies of a series which may require urgent or new policy measures to be taken sooner than expected. This paper reviews the regimes of exchange rate under the period, the series of fluctuations in the trends; their causes and all the measures taken so far in an attempt to achieve stability for the Naira. To further enhance realization of the policy objectives in this direction therefore, the paper suggests some policy measures that could assist in minimizing the distortions in the Naira exchange rate system caused by various factors such as political, sociological and economic forces.

Publication Date