Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department.
Exports, Economic growth, Impulse response model, oil and non-oil exports, Nigeria.
This study tests the validity of the hypothesis of export-led growth in Nigeria. Several arguments have been adduced with respect to this hypothesis in the literature, while empirical studies for Nigeria had put forward different results based on the period of coverage and the methodology. Given that economic models perform better with large time series, this study has used the period from 1960-2005 with adoption of a neo-classical Cobb-Douglas production model that was estimated through both linear and log-linear least squares technique. The effects of shocks to the explanatory variables on economic growth were captured by the impulse response model, while the granger causality test shows the direction of causality in the model. The study found that both oil and non-oil exports contributed to the enhanced economic growth that the country witnessed, however, the oil export is more significant to economic growth in Nigeria. Thus, feedback causality exists between oil export and growth, while there is unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to non-oil export. Furthermore, shocks to oil exports will significantly affect Nigeriaâ€™s economic growth. Therefore, this suggest that an outward-oriented industrialization strategy through export promotion policies, should be embarked upon by the government, especially those that will stimulate non-oil exports so as to averse the risk of negative oil export shock that would drop the level of economic growth.
Kareem, O. I. (2008). A test of the validity of export-led growth hypothesis in Nigeria: a further evidence. Economic and Financial Review, 46(3), 61-90.