Macroeconomic Instability Index and Threshold for the Nigerian Economy

Authors

B. A. G. Amoo, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow
J. K. Achua, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow
N. P. Audu, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow
B. Hamma, Central Bank of NigeriaFollow

Publisher

Central Bank of Nigeria

Keywords

Macroeconomic Instability Index, Threshold Autoregressive, Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive, Nigeria

Abstract

The paper employed statistical algorithms, factor analysis and threshold autoregressive models to address the gaps in management of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Using data spanning 2010q1 to 2017q2, the findings showed that the values of macroeconomic instability index (MII) fluctuated between 0.316 and 0.609, with a threshold of 0.461. This showed an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and economic growth. This framework could serve as a mechanism to gauge early warning signal of instability in Nigeria.

Author Bio

The authors are staff of the Real Sector Division, Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria.

Publication Title

CBN Economic and Financial Review

Issue

2

Volume

55

Recommended Citation

Amoo, B. A. G.; Achua, J. k.; Audu, N. P. and Hamma, B. (2017). Macroeconomic Instability Index and Threshold for the Nigerian Economy. CBN Economic and Financial Review. 55(2), 35-68.