Capital Mobility, Exchange Rate Stability, Interest Rate, Monetary Independence, Trilemma Policies
Policy makers face trade-oﬀ in dealing with exchange rate management, monetary independence and concerns about capital mobility simultaneously. This study empirically examines the eﬀects of Nigeria’s trilemma policy path on interest rate using data spanning from 1997:Q1 to 2017:Q3. It equally incorporates the role of external reserves in buﬀering these eﬀects. Stationarity of the series were ascertained with Zivot-Andrew (ZA) structural break unit roots test technique, while the bounds test cointegration approach was used to conﬁrm the cointegrating properties of the variables. We found that capital mobility has signiﬁcant eﬀect on interest rate in the long run baseline model and could also be successfully buﬀered with external reserves to reduce interest rate. Additionally, our results show that although exchange rate stability and monetary independence do not independently aﬀect interest rate, but their interaction with external reserves does. This implies that external reserve serves as an eﬀective buﬀer if appropriately employed by the monetary authorities. The trilemma policy can be used to optimally reduce interest rate. Also, external reserves could serve as a tool for economic stabilization with appropriate combination with other relevant policy variables.
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics
Ajogbeje, Korede; Adeniyi, Oluwatosin; and Egwaikhide, Festus O.
"Policy Trilemma and Interest Rate Behaviour in Nigeria,"
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS): Vol. 9
, Article 2.
Available at: https://dc.cbn.gov.ng/jas/vol9/iss2/2